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Value Does Not Last Forever

When you are observant enough to identify an undervalued team, ride that team. But be aware...

Thursday 12th February 2004

Value Does Not Last Forever

By William Foote & the Superior Sports Staff







When you are observant enough to identify an undervalued team, then by all means ride that team to the bank. But be aware that the gravy train does not last forever. Gone are the days of teams flying under the radar screen for months and even years on end. We are lucky to find a team flying under the radar for even a few weeks in this day and age. That is, the gambling markets are tighter than ever. The Information Age has made the public and oddsmakers much more aware. Simply put, these two entities pick up on soft lines far quicker today than in year’s past.



This does not mean value capping is gone. There will always be undervalued teams. However, the duration that a team remains undervalued has shortened considerably, except in the rarest of circumstances. Knowing when to back off a club is just as important as identifying and playing that club in the first place.



The following piece presents some teams that were terrific early season diamonds, but have since turned to coal. In other words, here are some clubs that have long since lost their early season value and that you should be cautious with before risking anymore money on.



Georgia Tech – Georgia Tech started the year on a sizzling 8-2 ATS run their first ten lined games and stung many powerhouse teams in the process. In fact, the Yellow Jackets actually beat UCONN outright during this stretch. But those days are over. The Jackets are just 1-4 ATS their last five and appear all out of honey for their backers. Early season value has long since been sapped from this club.



Alabama – Expectations were low for Alabama after a disappointing 2002 season. In as much, the Tide rolled in the cash early by notching an awesome 9-3-1 ATS mark their first thirteen lined games. But after starting the year in the black, the Crimson Tide have since seen nothing but red. The oddsmakers have adjusted and Bama is 0-4-1 ATS their last five games overall. If you were smart enough to play Alabama early on, swim back to shore before the Tide washes away all of your profits.



San Jose State – San Jose State began the year leaving a trail of cash as long as Dorothy’s yellow brick road. The Spartans won their first seven lined games ATS and sparkled like a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Sorry Dorothy, the oddsmakers have since closed the road. SJSU has taken a severe detour, riding a bumpy 1-10 ATS slide their last eleven overall.



Seton Hall – Those smart enough to back the Pirates early on were left with a treasure chest of riches. Seton Hall grabbed the loot in eight of their first nine lined games. The Pirates have walked the plank of late, however, sitting at just 2-3-1 ATS their last six.



BYU – Gambling may be frowned upon in Utah, but that didn’t stop the Cougars from feasting on bookies at the beginning of the season. With unexpected wins against Oklahoma State and USC, BYU kicked off the year at 8-4 ATS their first twelve lined games. But the Cougars are an endangered species right now, losing four of their last five ATS.



Auburn – Another surprise feline among the group, the Tigers pounced on the books early by winning seven of their first nine games ATS. But tiger strips do not hide easily, nor do the books take kindly to being Auburn’s early season prey. This team has now lost seven consecutive games against the number.



Bradley – Bradley was the darling of many handicappers to start the year. The Braves shot out of the gate going 8-1 ATS their first nine overall, but have since been scalped by the oddsmakers losing seven of their last eleven to the number.



The moral of the story is that value is fleeting these days. When you are keen enough to spot an emerging team trend, pounce on it fast and abandon it at the first sign of trouble. Understand that it is only a matter of time before the public jumps on the bandwagon and the oddsmakers adjust, thus erasing the value in a hurry. Value is always out there, but its’ life span is far shorter these days.





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