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A call on undermanned Duke may look like suicide today. After all, the Seminoles are in off a heartbreaking loss to Maryland and itching to vent some frustrations vs. their ACC doormat opponent. Or are they? We do not carry any advanced degrees in the field of psychology, but we did stay at a Holiday Inn last night and our take on the Noles psyche is a bit different.
This is what we term a handicapping 101 “sandwich game” for FSU, as they are off a huge game with division rival Maryland, will be playing an inferior foe this week and then have another monumental tilt vs. NC State this coming Thursday on ESPN. And knowing college athletics as we do; it is extremely difficult to see Florida State taking this game all that serious. Moreover, we are not sure Bobby Bowden’s downtrodden bunch could name the score in this one even with full focus.
FSU is now 3-5 ATS for the season, including a perfect 0-4 ATS their past four as double digit chalk. Dating back further, Florida State is 6-10 ATS their past sixteen as double digit home chalk and 1-5 ATS their past six priced between -21.5 and -31. A big reason why the Seminoles have been unable to cover these lofty imposts of late is that their offense is rather mediocre by normal FSU standards. In fact, they are generating just 26.6 points per game for the season this year. As a frame of reference, FSU is a 31-point favorite in today’s tilt, which looks like an early Christmas present for those backing Duke.
The Blue Devils may not win a whole lot of game straight up, but they without question have been bringing 100% effort each and every week this year. The influence of new Head Coach Ted Roof has done wonders for the morale issues that plagued this program in years past and the dividends are showing up at the ticket window. Duke is now 5-1-1 ATS their past six games overall, as well as 3-1-1 ATS their past five on the road. Dating back further, the Blue Devils are firmly in the green at 11-4-1 ATS their past fifteen road games, 5-1 ATS their past six priced between +21.5 and +31, along with a stellar 9-3-1 ATS since Roof took over late last year.
Duke’s offense mustered 423 yards at Wake Forest last week in a heartbreaking 2-point loss that they easily could have won. They actually outgained the Deacons by 23 yards on the day and covered the 17-point mark with plenty to spare. This was against the same Wake Forest team, by the way, that FSU barely snuck by 20-17 the week prior. When all is said and done, the Blue Devils have shown marked improvement in recent weeks and have been keeping games much closer than most realize. Furthermore, they may well catch FSU flat off their recent unexpected loss and peeking ahead towards Thursday’s ACC showdown with NC State on ESPN. We’ll take these generous points and call for Duke to hang within a couple touchdowns here.
