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Bonus NCAA Pick

William Foote

Saturday 16th October 2004

Bonus NCAA on NC State +3 -125

- NC State at Maryland

- Game goes at 12:30 PM PST., 3:30 PM EST.

- Best Line Available at BoDog Sportsbook & Casino



Anytime we see the Wolfpack on the road and grabbing points, our eyebrows will unknowingly furrow. Perhaps this is the result of watching too many football games and knowing too much about a certain coach by the name of Chuck Amato. This general familiarity has gleaned just how well Amato is at getting his players to perform at a high level under difficult circumstances. And while his team comes in at a modest 3-2 SU and an unsuccessful 1-3 ATS, we’ve seen some extremely positive signs. These signs, not coincidentally, align perfect with what we know of NC State’s brilliant head coach. Let us quickly explain.



The Wolfpack opened up their season blowing out Richmond in a non-lined throw-a-away contest. In their four real games, NC State hosted Ohio State (a game where NCST opened as a dog, but was bet all the way to -3 at kickoff), played at VA Tech as a 7-point dog, hosted Wake Forest as a 10.5-point favorite and was again a 10.5 point favorite, this time on the road, vs. North Carolina last weekend. It comes as little surprise that the Wolfpack were unable to cover the lofty imposts vs. Wake Forest and North Carolina, just as it came as little surprise that they thrived in the role of underdog at Blacksburg, beating VA Tech 17-16.



Back to our original statement; Amato is at his best vs. tough opponents. Consider for a moment that North Carolina State is a picture perfect 10-0 ATS under Amato as an away underdog!!! That is simply a stunning stat. What is even more compelling about the Wolfpack is that they may have their best team ever in the Amato era. Yes, we are aware that QB Rivers is playing for the Chargers and that NCST is a mere 3-2 SU as we speak. But this team is playing a blue collar, smash mouth style of football behind a ferocious running game and stifling defense that is hard not to get excited about.



NC. State is led on offense by All-ACC RB McClendon, who has racked up 446 yards rushing on a whopping 5.1 YPC in his team’s four games vs. Division 1-A opposition. The Wolfpack as a team average just a lick shy of 200 yards per game on the ground. Even more eye opening is how tough this club’s stop unit has been. The ornery Wolves are yielding just 228 yards per game, which ranks them second behind only Wisconsin in the nation’s overall defense category. Even more incredible is the 109 passing yards per game they are yielding, which is good enough to rank them as the best pass defense in the entire country.



Mind you, this is a team that has played a very respectable schedule thus far and lays claim to a No. 2 rated defense out of 118 teams and a No. 1 rated pass defense out of 118 teams. This is not something to be ignored, as the Wolfpack defense is the read deal. All said, Chuck Amato has an extremely underrated team and it is just a matter of time before folks start to realize this. Their lone trouble spot this year has been turnovers, as the Pack have an ugly -9 ratio in their four lined games. If that ratio were reduced by just a few, NC State would undoubtedly be undefeated right now. Simple as that. Don’t believe us? Note that they have outgained each of their five opponents this season by an average of 159 yards per game.



For their part, the Terrapins come into this contest at 3-2 SU and an unprofitable 2-3 ATS. We have faded Maryland twice this season and have walked away with the cash on both occasions. Long time readers of ours almost fell out of their collective chairs when we made those selections. After all, there has not been a larger advocate of Ralph Friedgen and his genius game planning, overall offensive savvy and timely play calling than us. The Fridge had also proven a virtual cash machine in College Park, as his team came into the year riding a sugar sweet 14-2 ATS mark when playing at home since his arrival in 2001.



The problem for Ralph in 2004 is that he returned just 5 starters on offense and 4 starters on defense. He lost both starting wide receivers from a year ago, along with their starting QB. And Friedgen’s complex offensive schemes have yet to take root with his young offense, as Maryland has looked downright pathetic at times this year. We faded the Terps in week one with N. Illinois as more than a two TD road dog and then again with Temple as almost a four TD road dog. Maryland outgained N. Illinois by just 30 total yards, winning by only three and beat an ungodly bad Temple team by just 23 in those respective games.



More importantly, Maryland has failed miserably in each of their two big tests this season. The Turtles lost at West Virginia 19-16 managing just 108 yards passing for the day and were outgained by 57 yards overall. Even worse was their setback last week vs. a mediocre GA Tech team. Maryland had 38 rushing attempts for a whopping 7 yards (0.18 YPC!!!) and managed 74 total yards passing. That is correct; offensive mastermind Friedgen’s team was held below 90 yards total offense in that game and was outgained by 237 yards overall, as a 13.5-point home favorite no less.



The simple problem is that Maryland does not have the guns they did in the past and Friedgen is for the first time having to go through a rebuilding year. And that 14-2 ATS mark at College Park smacked into our friend Senior Regression this year, as the Turtles are now 0-3 ATS at home on the season. We should lastly note that the underdog is an amazing 15-3-1 ATS the past nineteen in this series, while the visitor is 3-0 ATS the past three meetings. Put us down on the Wolfpack, as they are a vastly undervalued team right now and will have no trouble shutting down the ailing Maryland attack



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