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Workday Winner in Atlanta

William Foote

Tuesday 28th September 2004



Bonus MLB on NY Mets/Atlanta Under 8.5 +100

- Trachsel & Byrd

- Listed pitchers

- Game goes at 1:35 PM PST., 4:35 PM EST.

- Line Available at BoDog Sportsbook & Casino



We made this same call on Monday as a High Roller Selection, but the game was a scratch due to rain. We are coming back with the same play today, though it's not quite as strong as the number has been bet down from 9 to 8.5. Nonetheless, there is still ample evidence that suggests a low scoring affair here. Namely, we have two struggling offenses, two fairly strong starting pitchers—both in solid current form—and two bullpens that have been shutting down the opposition of late.



Before we touch on the fundamentals, let’s quickly review the season long trends of both teams. Atlanta will enter this contest 65-82 (o/u) overall and 41-59 (o/u) vs. right handed starters. In addition, they are an astounding 39-63 (o/u) in night games this year. New York, meanwhile, is 0-8 (o/u) their last eight games and 6-17 (o/u) their last twenty-three games. This stretch has put the Metropolitans at 69-76 (o/u) overall, 31-40 (o/u) on the road and 25-39 (o/u) vs. divisional foes. These trends should continue today with two struggling offenses taking the field.



The Mets are hitting just .236 and putting up a mere 3.4 runs per game over their last ten. Over their last eight, they have not scored more than four runs and have scored three runs or less in all but one of these games. The good news is that their staff carries a solid 3.26 ERA, while their pen boasts a 1.74 ERA during this same stretch. The Braves for their part are hitting a meager .239 and averaging only 4.4 runs per contest their last ten overall. But their pitching, much like the Mets, has picked up the slack during this stretch as they carry a 3.78 ERA overall and 3.41 bullpen ERA during this same time period.



In terms of the particular match-up, the Braves’ Byrd will check in with a 3.40 ERA overall, 3.42 ERA at night, 2.98 ERA vs. divisional foes and 2.65 ERA his last three starts. In fact, he sports a sweet 2.82 ERA over his last nine starts, during which time he has surrendered three earned runs or less in all but one start. The Mets’ Trachsel will enter this contest with a 4.07 ERA and 3.50 ERA his last three starts. Admittedly, his 6.02 ERA on the road is our greatest concern here. But his last two road starts have been fairly solid. In addition, he has faced the Braves five times this season and except for his first game against them in 2004, Trachsel has been solid with a 2.52 ERA his last four contests against Atlanta. All in all, the total is simply too high when all aspects are considered. Play the “Under.”



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Source: OnlineCasinoNews