Baseball betting choices are fairly basic, with bettors able to wager on the side and total. There aren't many gimmick bets during the baseball season like you have with Sunday and Monday Night football proposition bets, for example. The one regular gimmick bet in baseball, offered on most games, is the run-line.
Run-lines in baseball means the favorite has to win the game by more than one run, or if you back the underdog on the run-line, you win your bet if the dog wins the game or loses by only one run. For example, in Game 1 of the 2001 World Series, Arizona's Curt Schilling was a minus-140 favorite over Mike Mussina and the Yankees. But if you bet Schilling on the run-line, the return was +180, meaning you collected if the Diamondbacks won the game by more than one run. The game ended up being a rout, with Arizona winning 9-1 and those who took a chance with the favorite on the run-line grabbing a nice payday.
As a general rule, most professional sports bettors don't play the run-line with any regularity. Here's a good example why: During that season, the Diamondbacks went 27-8 SU when Curt Schilling started and 25-10 when Randy Johnson took the mound. That's a sizzling 42-18 record, which, on the surface, may appear to be easy money. But, Schilling had ten one-run victories while Johnson had seven, meaning that Schilling went 17-18 for backers on the run-line and Johnson went 18-17. There's no value there, especially when laying –130 or –150 on the run-line, which happens often with ace pitchers.
Also, Schilling and Johnson just happened to have had terrific seasons, both winning over 20 games. Not all ace pitchers do, as we see all the time. Before the Red Sox let go of Pedro Martinez, the Red Sox went 9-6 in games Martinez started and only 7-8 if you had bet the run-line every start. With Martinez regularly a three-dollar favorite and a minus-160 on the run line, you would have lost your shirt on straight bets or run-lines backing the injured ace.
This happened this weekend, too. On Saturday, Cardinal ace Chris Carpenter was a minus-240 favorite over the Washington Nationals, but an enticing minus-130 on the run line. St. Louis did get the win Saturday, but just 2-1. A win on the money-line, but a loser on the Cardinals on the run line, despite the seductive price.
There are occasional spots, however, when there can be value in taking a shot with the run-line. For example, if a strong offensive team is playing against an average or poor starting pitcher, there is a greater likelihood that the game will not be decided by one run. A low scoring, one-run game, such as 2-1 or 3-2, is more likely in a good pitcher’s park like Dodger Stadium or Shea Stadium, than in Coors Field or The Ballpark in Arlington, Texas, where scores of 10-6 are not uncommon.
Another factor to consider is the DH. National League games are lower scoring on average as there is no designated hitter. NL pitchers can walk the number-eight hitter, for example, to get to the opposing team's pitcher and get out of a second and third, two-out jam. This is not an option in the AL where the pitcher doesn't bat and the manager can go with nine strong offensive players. This is why the best NL teams usually have lower ERAs than the best American League clubs.
So, as a general rule, don't look toward betting the run-line. But don't ignore it completely, either, as there are times when value stands out. Smart sports wagering means thinking carefully, jumping on good opportunities, and maximizing your bankroll.
