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Monday 4th September 2006
There’s no better time of the year than the beginning of football season. The salary cap and the draft are two large factors that keep the NFL competitively balanced, and the No. 1 sport for viewers. The pro football season kicks off this week when the Dolphins travel to Pittsburgh to battle the defending champs. Here’s a look at some of the best of the AFC and NFC.
Steelers (15-5 SU, 13-7 ATS in 2005): Bill Cowher got the Steelers back to the power running game two years ago (No. 2 in 2004, No. 5 last season). Combined with a physically tough defense, the combo proved deadly, going 15-1 in 2004 and winning the Super Bowl last season, the 5th in franchise history. With so much success, don’t look for that formula to change.
The key piece of the puzzle for Cowher was finding a talented QB in Ben Roethlisberger, who passed for 17 TDs, 9 picks. Big Ben had a poor Super Bowl, but he was magnificent against Indy and Denver in the playoffs - both on the road. Big Ben is 27-4 as a starter! There aren’t many changes. Jerome Bettis retired, but ran for only 368 yards. Speedy RB Willie Parker (1,202 yards, 4.7 ypc) leads the way and they replaced free agent WR loss Antawn Randle-El with rookie Santonio Holmes. Pittsburgh is an incredible 16-3 SU, 14-5 ATS on the road the last two years.
Colts (14-3 SU, 9-7 ATS): While the Steelers are old-fashioned power football, the Colts couldn’t be more opposite. Their strengths: A 21st century speedy air attack led by QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison. They had the No. 1 passing attack in football in 2004, No. 4 last season, and add free agent kicker Adam Vinatieri from rival New England.
However, 2005 was the most depressing 14-3 season in NFL history. They had a 13-0 start, home field for the entire playoffs, then flamed out again, losing to the Steelers, 21-18. They lost star RB Edgerrin James (1,548 and 1,506 rush yards the last two seasons). The defense is smaller, too. “We want to be faster,” Dungy said this summer. “Hopefully that's faster and bigger, but it may not always be the case.” Which means they could be more susceptible to power running teams.
Broncos (14-4 SU, 12-5 ATS): Like the Colts, the Broncos had a great 2005 season that was wiped out in their surprising home loss to the Steelers in January. Denver always has great running teams behind its zone blocking schemes (No. 2 in rushing). Despite a new offensive coordinator (Mike Heimerdinger) the deep ground game will lead the way again behind Mike Bell, Tatum Bell, Ron Dayne and Cecil Sapp.
The defense is strong with one of the top linebacking corps in the league. The big story will be at quarterback. The offense went conservative to minimize the pressure on QB Jake Plummer and he responded with a relatively mistake-free season….until the AFC Championship game against Blitz-burgh. That’s why coach Mike Shanahan moved up to No. 11 on draft day to take Vanderbilt QB Jay Cutler. Jittery Jake’s days are numbered in Denver. The Broncos are 21-5 SU/12-12-1 ATS at home the last three seasons.
Dolphins (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS): Miami was a huge surprise, going 9-7 under first-year coach Nick Saban. It was a fascinating offseason. The big story was the trade (or steal) for Vikings star QB Daunte Culpepper. Culpepper had a terrible 2005 season with a season-ending knee injury, but the guy is 29-years old and had a 2004 season with 4,717 yards passing, 39 TDs and 11 INTs. Good quarterbacks are rare, and adding Culpepper was a no-brainer.
Saban upgraded the running game a year ago with No. 2 pick in the draft, grabbing Auburn workhorse Ronnie Brown. The defense still has veterans Zach Thomas, Jason Taylor and DE Kevin Carter. The secondary slipped to 20th against the pass, so they drafted Tennessee safety/cornerback Jason Allen at No. 16. They also carry a 6-0 Su, 4-2 ATS run into the new season. Note that Miami is 15-9 ATS on the road the last three seasons, yet 12-12 SU and 6-18 ATS at home!
Patriots (11-7 SU, 9-9 ATS): The Patriots went 34-4 from 2003-04 and consecutive Super Bowls, to a back-to-the-pack 11-7 season. Injuries were the story in 2005 as the defense was second worst against the pass. Willie McGinest, WR David Givens and Super Bowl hero Adam Viniateri left. They could be slipping back to the pack, or reloading for a serious Super Bowl run again.
The secondary is still a concern until safety Rodney Harrison returns, but the front line is terrific with young studs Richard Seymour, Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork. Newcomer Junior Seau adds depth at LB. The offense appears loaded, with Corey Dillon looking sharp after a new offseason workout program, and first round pick RB Laurence Maroney, who dazzled in preseason. TE Ben Watson is a budding star and they like speedy rookie WR Chad Jackson. Of course, the Patriots still have Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady, who led the NFL with 4,110 yards passing. The Patriots are 25-3 SU and 19-8 ATS in the regular season at home from 2003-05.
Cowboys: Dallas is off a 9-7 season where they ranked 10th in total defense and 12th in offense. So Bill Parcells figures this team only needs a little fine tuning and they can be a force in 2006. The Tuna rebuilt the defense a year ago, and this offseason he upgraded the offensive line adding Jason Fabini.
The running game sports Julius Jones, they love young TE Jason Witten (66 catches for 757 yards), and veteran QB Drew Bledsoe gets to throw to WR Terry Glenn and newcomer Terrell Owens. Owens didn’t contribute in preseason, but should upgrade this balanced and potentially potent offense. Dallas is 7-4 ATS its last 11 as an underdog.
Giants: A big test for Dallas in the NFC East will be the emerging Giants. The offense was extremely balanced last fall, ranking 6th in rushing and 9th in passing (4th overall in total offense). RB Tiki Barber is a force (1,860 yards, 5.2 ypc) for demanding coach Tom Coughlin, and there is talent everywhere with TE Jeremy Shockey and WRs Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burris.
Young QB Eli Manning threw for 3,762 yards, but just 52.8% completions, with 24 TDs, 17 INTs. He should improve with so much talent surrounding him. A key is a defense that slipped to 24th overall and was awful against the pass, ranking 27th. Michael Strahan is terrific, and they bring in LB Lavar Arrington and drafted Boston College DE Mathias Kiwanuka. Can they take a step higher? In 2005, the Giants were 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS as a favorite, but 1-4 SU, 2-2 ATS as a dog.
Panthers: It's been an impressive run the last three years for John Fox and the Panthers, making the Super Bowl three years ago and getting to the NFC Championship game in January before losing to Seattle. QB Jake Delhomme is solid behind center, and they have a potentially exciting passing game with star WR Steve Smith and newcomer Keyshawn Johnson.
The running game is a Fox staple, and they have awesome depth adding rookie RB DeAngelo Williams, joining Nick Goings and DeShaun Foster. The ball hawking defense led the way with a +17 turnover margin and ranked 3rd in the NFL in total defense. Did you know that Panthers bark loudly as a dog? Carolina is 10-2 ATS its last 12 as a dog, and 18-3 ATS its last 21 games as an underdog! Last season they were 4-1 SU/ATS as a dog.
Bucs: You can’t ignore a team that once again was No. 1 in total defense, which led the way to a playoff appearance. The defense will lead the way again, while coach Jon Gruden likes young QB Chris Simms. The main priority was upgrading a poor offensive line, and they tried to by taking OG Dave Joseph (Oklahoma) and OT Jeremy Trueblood (BC) with their first two picks in the draft.
The running game has Carnell 'Cadillac' Williams and he had a fine rookie season with 1,178 yards, 4.1 ypc. Overall, this is a balanced, ball control offense rather than an explosive one. That's OK because ace defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin has another top-notch, speedy defense behind LBs Derrick Brooks and Ryan Nece. That explains why the team was 11-6 under the total. Tampa Bay was 4-1 Su/ATS as an underdog last season.
Seahawks: Any team that plays in a division with the 49ers, Rams and Cardinals is a cinch to return to the playoffs! Seattle hopes they can repeat as NFC champs with a different Super Bowl result. Seattle finished 2nd in the NFL in total offense and had the 5th best rushing defense. RB Shaun Alexander (1,880 yards, 5.1 ypc), a strong offensive line and QB Matt Hasselbeck (24 TDs, 9 INTs) lead this exceptionally balanced attack.
This group was 11-6 'over' the total in 2004 and 12-7 'over' last season. A big move was keeping Rocky Bernard (10½ sacks), a sought-after defensive tackle, who re-signed with the NFC champs and adding LB Julian Petersen. Seattle was 10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS at home in 2005!
