'You're never as good as you look on your good days, and you're never as bad on your bad days.' Penn State football coach Joe Paterno is credited with that remark many years ago after a 48-14 upset of Pitt when the Nittany Lions were a big underdog. He was referring to fact that even though his team just trounced a top-rated Pitt club, it didn't mean they were the best team in the country, simply that it was Penn State’s day, while Pitt had a bad game. You have to keep things in perspective.
This description is accurate and sports bettors should understand this. Because sometimes a team that you bet on has a horrible game, and it's important not smart to suddenly write that club off as terrible. Rather, log it in the back of your head as just a bad game, and don't be afraid to back that team again, if the circumstances dictate.
As the NBA playoffs move into the second round this week, be patient and keep a clear head: Don't get too high or too low based on what you see on ONE game. Was there ever a better example of this than the first game of the playoff when the Kings traveled to San Antonio? The Spurs were an 8-point favorite and throttled the Kings, 122-88! For Game 2, Ron Artest was suspended, so oddsmakers installed the Spurs as an 11-point home favorite.
But Game 2 didn't look anything like Game 1, as the short-handed Kings played a spirited game. They not only covered, but should have won, as the Spurs needed a miraculous three-pointer by Brent Barry at the end of regulation to force overtime. The point is, a team doesn't always look the same from game to game, especially a real BAD game.
For example, a few year's ago early in the college basketball season, defending champion Duke was playing against Seton Hall. As a 22-point favorite, the Blue Devils were lucky to squeeze out a one-point win. Was Duke overrated? Were the Blue Devils a fraud, perhaps even rebuilding? Or maybe Seton Hall was that good?
The answer to those questions came immediately. In the very next game, Duke flattened South Carolina 81-56 as a 16-point favorite. And Seton Hall? The Pirates ended up going 0-2 ATS the next two games, including an 80-62 loss to Kansas as a +9 dog. What was obvious is that the public and the oddsmakers put too much emphasis on that one Duke/Seton Hall thriller. Clearly, the Blue Devils simply had a bad game. As a sports bettor, it's important to understand this. Teams get hot and cold, and it's smart to think about the whole picture and examine how teams match up on a game-by-game basis, in addition to focusing on the last couple of games.
Hall of Fame coach Red Auerbach often pointed out that sometimes the basketball simply doesn't drop in the hoop, and there's nothing you can do about it. This happens all the time, and as a sports bettor, it's important to key that into your handicapping. A few years ago, the Lakers lost consecutive games to Sacramento and Seattle. It didn't mean the Lakers were lazy, beat up, injured or had an unhappy clubhouse. They just had poor shooting nights and eventually that slump will end. It did in the next game, as the Lakers were a 10-point favorite over the Clippers and won by 30.
So look for examples of teams that are overvalued and those that are not getting respect. If you can identify why a team is not getting respect (often a poor shooting night in the last game), you can find a soft line for an easy cover. And we all want a ticket that looks like a winner at halftime, than one that comes down to the final play. Remember: Luck is the residue of hard work!
