In arguably the strongest ESPN Prime Time match-up of the season, Florida State will collide with NC State in Raleigh this evening. The Seminoles enter this contest at 7-2 SU, but just 3-6 ATS. Their two straight up losses were both on the road vs. Miami and Maryland, respectively. Bobby Bowden’s bunch is now 2-2 SU and a spotless 0-4 ATS when away from Tallahassee this season.
A big reason why the Seminoles have been unable to cover on the road is that their offense is rather mediocre by normal FSU standards. And it starts at the QB position where the Noles have been playing musical chairs with Chris Rix and Wyatt Sexton the entire year. Sexton gets the nod tonight after a strong performance last week against ACC-doormat Duke where he completed 11 of 15 for 220 yards.
Despite the rather bland offensive situation in Tallahassee these days, there is absolutely nothing wrong with FSU’s stop unit. The Noles are yielding a stifling 13.4 points per game overall, as well as a mere 16.5 points per game when on the trail. And you can pretty much forget about attacking FSU’s interior with a running game, as they are allowing just 66 rushing yards per contest which is good enough to rank 2nd in the nation. Another interesting dynamic here is that Florida State is 0-2 ATS their past two games, but is a bookie-busting 18-6 ATS their last twenty-four off back-to-back spread losses.
On the flipside, NC State enters this contest at just 4-5 SU and a wallet busting 2-6 ATS. Note further that they are just 2-3 SU and a perfect 0-4 ATS when at home this year. Even more alarming is that the Wolfpack have lost their last three games both straight up and to the number as well. No two ways about it: NC State has underachieved this year. However, as is always the case, there are two sides to every story.
For Chuck Amato’s bunch, there are a number of reasonable explanations for their disappointing season. In large part, it has to do with facing a brutal schedule, along with entirely too many turnovers. Despite having played Ohio State, VA Tech, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Maryland, Miami, Clemson and GA Tech; NC State has not once this entire year been outgained by an opponent. That is simply amazing! Unfortunately, they are dead last in the ACC with 26 turnovers as well. This is not to mention the Wolfpack are banged up in several key areas, mainly along their offensive line and at wide receiver.
Turnovers and injuries aside, there is little arguing the technical support for NC State tonight. First off, NCAA Home Dogs are a jaw dropping 96-55 ATS (63.6%) overall in the 2004 college season thus far, while home dogs priced at +7 or more are an equally incredible 61-38 ATS (62.3%). In addition, North Carolina State is 7-1 ATS their past eight as a dog and 13-4 ATS as a dog since Amato arrived back in 2000. All said, there is not a shortage of angles to think about in this one. Good luck with your bets!
