Punters speculate about Birmingham and the final table standings at William Hill
Wednesday 29th March 2006
March/April Basketball: Motivation is a Key
by Glenn McGrew
That sound you hear are basketballs bouncing all over gymnasiums, with the NBA playoffs on the horizon, the NIT Finals this week and the Final Four this weekend. And, of course, the sound those of us in the handicapping business like to hear is the ching-ching-ching of cash registers as we turn in winning tickets.
This doesn't happen by luck. You need to do your homework if you expect to turn a profit betting on sports. Anyone can get hot for a few weeks, or sometimes even a whole season, but those of us who make our living analyzing games know what to look for and how to use it.
One key factor in basketball is motivation, which often comes from coaching. John Wooden and Red Auerbach were masterful at finding ways, day in and day out, to keep teams focused and motivated. It's no accident that Wooden won seven straight titles at UCLA and Auerbach won eight straight NBA titles with the Celtics. Don't let anyone tell you it was simply because those men acquired the best players, either. Sure, that was an important part of it, but to win that many titles in a row requires a gifted, driven coach who can motivate a team.
I've won many bets over the years paying close attention to which teams are motivated to play hard and those that are packing it in. A team to keep an eye on this week is the South Carolina Gamecocks. They won the NIT a year ago and have been playing well in this year's tournament. They appear to be a motivated group, something you don't always find in the NIT. Note that the Gamecocks are trying to become the first team to win consecutive NIT championships since St. John's in 1943 and 1944.
As we go on the stretch run of the NBA regular season, you can find teams that are motivated to play hard and those that simply don't care. I recall a few years ago the Atlanta Hawks having two poor seasons in a row, going 33-48 and 39-42-1 against the spread. Coming down the stretch of the 2000 season the Hawks were the most unhappy team that could possibly be assembled. They got off to a terrible start and couldn't score any points after trading away Steve Smith to Portland. The high expectations turned into a disappointing, frustrating season and the fans began to hoot the team (those that showed up). Like dominoes, everything began to unravel: The team refused to play defense, players were complaining, they had no shot of making the post-season and coach Lenny Wilkens knew it was time to move on. That team went an astonishing 6-23 ATS to end the season! Bad for the franchise, but great for those of us who spotted the breakdown and cashed in big.
The Los Angeles Clippers had a similar stretch that season. After a promising start, injuries sapped the team's strength and if you watched them play, you saw that they didn't care anymore and packed it in down the stretch. Those Clippers went 14-28 against the spread to end the season. Ching-ching-ching!
The Portland Trail Blazers and the Seattle Sonics have had stretches this season where they really packed it in and were money-burners. Watch these teams closely over the next few weeks to see if they show any pride, or simply don't care and want to get vacation started. It can work the other way, too. A happy team being pushed by a coach who knows how to teach and communicate is a great recipe for wins, both straight up and against the spread. They year they made the Finals, the Indiana Pacers were 58-44-1 against the spread. The team they played, the focused Lakers, started the year 45-23 ATS.
The current Pacers, Kings, Jazz, and Bucks are fighting for playoff positioning right now and several other teams are clawing for their playoff lives. So look for situations where coaches and players are more driven to play hard than other teams in the league. Because you can profit by riding a team for a long stretch, not just one or two games. Remember: Luck is the residue of hard work, and one of the secrets of successful sports betting is to locate those edges. Because if you don't do your homework, you'll wind up like the former Vancouver Grizzlies: broke and forced to leave town!
