We used Oakland and New York Over as a High Roller Pick two days ago and came back with the same play on these pages yesterday. Both turned out to be winners, as 17 total runs were produced on Tuesday and 14 total runs were produced last night. And while today’s pitching match up looks good on paper, both of these aces are having their problems.
Consider that Zito carries a 4.81 ERA for the season, a hard to believe 5.17 ERA when on the road and a towering 7.56 ERA his past three starts. Suffice to say, Zito is having a horrific season. The Yankee’s Brown has a 3.93 ERA overall, a 3.94 ERA when at home and a 5.65 ERA his past three starts. While not atrocious, these are not the numbers we have come to expect from Brown. In our estimation, neither one of these pitchers will hold the fort today. Especially when you consider the respective line ups they will be facing.
Oakland is simply knocking the cover off the ball right now and the Bronx Bombers are … well they are arguably the most dangerous line up in baseball. Note that the Athletics are producing 8.4 runs per nine innings their last ten vs. right-handed pitchers and 7.6 runs per contest their last ten games overall. For their part, the Yanks crush lefties to the tune of 5.7 runs per game for the season and are scoring 5.5 runs per game overall in 2004.
On a technical note, Zito is 3-0 (o/u) his past three starts and the A’s are 5-1 (o/u) their last six. In general, Oakland is now 30-23 (o/u) on the road for the season and an eye opening 12-2 (o/u) on the road vs. AL East opposition in 2004. Meanwhile, New York is 3-0 (o/u) their past three overall and 28-22 (o/u) at home for the year. More specifically, the Yanks are 7-1 (o/u) priced as home chalk between -125 and -175. This is not to mention Oakland and New York are 6-2 (o/u) in their eight season meetings, with the average total runs scored being 12.9 per game in these contests! Put us down on the “Over” here.
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