The NBA playoffs are in full swing, which means overall the better teams are battling each other. This is different from the regular season when many nights great teams are playing bad teams, and bad teams are playing worse teams! One thing astute sports bettors should pay very careful attention to is blowouts.
Blowout games are less expected this time of the year. For Game 1s of playoff openers, most of the betting lines were between 5 and 8, the one exception being the Pistons a 12-point favorite over the Wizards. Oddsmakers are anticipating that the majority of teams want to be here and will play all out for 48 minutes keeping things relatively close.
Teams that have some talent or star players are more likely to make the playoffs, which also makes closer, more competitive games likely. Even a team like the Washington Wizards came into the playoffs with a star scorer in Gilbert Arenas, and two very good supporting players in Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler, two guys who could be very effective starters on many teams.
Still, one-sided games can happen for a variety of reasons. We’ve already seen this when the defending champion Spurs positively trashed the Kings in Game 1, 122-88. The stats on the game were frightening, with San Antonio shooting 57% and holding the Kings to 39%, while winning the battle of the boards 51-32.
This blowout, combined with the suspension of Ron Artest, helped push the betting line from 8 to 12 for the next game. However, a funny thing happened in Game 2 – the Kings showed up. They showed up with a vengeance, too, taking the Spurs to overtime before a wild 128-119 loss, though the angry dog still covered. Public perception can be such that many were thinking that the Spurs were going to destroy the Kings even worse in Game 2.
However, overlooked by some was that the Kings were embarrassed and angry. This is a veteran team that showed pride and heart, pulling together to play much better. The Kings played with fire and passion. When Bonzie Wells missed a free throw late in regulation that would have iced the game, you could see he was furious with himself, stepping away from the line in anger. Wells’ anger was justified, as seconds later Brent Barry hit an in-and-out-and-back-in-again three-pointer to force overtime, making Wells feel even worse.
The point is, don’t easily dismiss teams that get blown out. If they have talent, are well coached, or have strong leadership, they can bounce back and look like a very different team the next game. Another factor to consider is defense. Many teams that make the postseason know how to play good defense, and in a blowout loss, perhaps a team simply had a bad defensive game. Or, the opponent was doing something on the court that they couldn’t adjust to. Though after watching game films, they make adjustments, which is why they can look like a very different team.
Oddly, the Spurs have been involved in several back-to-back games like this lately. Near the end of the regular season, the Spurs flattened Utah 115-82, then failed to cover the next game, an 89-87 win at Houston. Back on March 9 San Antonio won an impressive 117-93 blowout win at Phoenix, only to loss at home the next game to the Lakers, 100-92, as an 8-point favorite.
Of course, the playoffs are very different, with two teams facing each other over and over again, making adjustments and revenge spots even more acute. You may recall the NBA Finals a year ago, when the Pistons destroyed the Spurs 102-71 in Game 4. The next game, the Spurs were a +3.5 dog, yet got their revenge in a 96-95 straight up win. Remember when the playoffs opened a year ago, the Celtics danced all over the Pacers in a 102-82 Game 1 rout. Boston players made foolish comments after the game about how they were already thinking about advancing to the next round! In Game 2, a very different Indiana team showed up in an 82-79 win as a road underdog. Every dog can have his day, for various reasons, in the NBA playoffs.
