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Online Casino News Feature: March Hoops

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Monday 13th March 2006

March Hoops and Tournament Surprises

by Jim Feist

It’s that time of year again: Basketball games night and day, day and night and after a few hours sleep, we wake up the next day and go through it all over again. NCAA tournament play is one of the most enjoyable times of the year for sports fans and bettors, with a seemingly endless stream of action and excitement.

Big name schools often end up in the Final Four: Illinois, North Carolina, Louisville and Michigan State last season, and in recent years we’ve seen Kansas, Texas, Syracuse, Indiana, Oklahoma, Duke, Arizona and Maryland. Big names, all of them, with no surprise schools like Pacific, Winthrop, Ohio or Stony Brook ever sneaking in. Large, high profile schools have big athletic budgets and enough scholarships to attract some of the top basketball talent, which is a key to their success.

However, this doesn’t mean smaller, lesser-known schools can’t compete with the big boys, especially when you look at one 40-minute game. There are countless examples for sports bettors. A year ago in the first round, Wisconsin-Milwaukee upset Alabama 83-73, UConn squeaked by Central Florida 77-71 as a 19-point favorite, Bucknell stunned Kansas 64-63, and Vermont took Syracuse to overtime and won 60-57.

Did you forget all those surprises? With so many games in March, it’s easy to forget the early rounds. Look no further than Holy Cross few years ago. The Crusaders had to face Marquette in the tournament opener, and as a 10-point dog, Holy Cross covered in a close 72-68 game. Holy Cross also give mighty Kansas a close game a few years ago. At first glance, some of the games look like mismatches, but a good handicapper is skilled in the art of careful analysis and patience.

Every year, it seems, one or two little known teams make memorable runs. A school like Butler from the Horizon League had one a few years ago. The Bulldogs topped Mississippi State 47-46, and then upset Louisville, 79-71. Which brings up a good point for serious sports bettors: It is not wise to take big favorites on the money-line. The payoff is poor, and successful sports wagering is as much about money management as it is picking winners. Taking a shot with a big dog who you think might be able to hang in there is much smarter than wagering $900 to win $100, for example on a minus-900 favorite, because surprising upsets happen all the time.

Several things are happening. One is the old NFL axiom, “On any given Sunday” one team can beat another, regardless of record or talent. Sometimes the better team simply has a bad night shooting the basketball, or the big underdog can’t miss. One of the most memorable upsets came in the 1985 NCAA Finals when Villanova, a +10 dog, upset mighty Georgetown 66-64. The Wildcats hit 22-of-28 field goals, 78% for the game! No matter how big an underdog is, if they shoot 78% they’re not going to be easy to defeat.

Another reason is that some smaller schools happen to have NBA-caliber talent. Miami of Ohio made a memorable run in 1999 with future NBA star Wally Szczerbiak. Miami went 24-8 SU/17-14 ATS that season and upset Washington in the NCAA tournament, 59-58 as a +2 dog, beat Utah 66-58 as a +8 dog before falling to Kentucky as a +10 dog. You never know: schools like South Alabama, Murray State, Bradley, Iona and Belmont just might be showcasing future NBA talent this month.

Other times a small school has a great coach or a collection of talented kids who play tough defense and believe in themselves and they can upset traditional powers. You may recall a March tourney where the Detroit Titans upset UCLA 56-53 and Weber State beat mighty North Carolina 76-74 as a +14 dog! Teams are generally motivated to play in the NCAA tournament, but this isn’t always the case with the NIT. Some teams that were hoping to get to the Big Dance are disappointed at being selected for the lower-seeded NIT and aren’t always ready to give their best effort. For example, which college basketball conference is more known, the Atlantic 10 or the Ohio Valley? Four years ago in the NIT, Tennessee Tech of the Ohio Valley was a +12 dog against Dayton, yet won straight up 68-59.

Sometimes there are look-ahead spots, where a high-seeded team might be looking past an opponent it might not take seriously. That’s what appeared to happen in the game I mentioned earlier, Kansas against Holy Cross. Kansas needed a second half push to top the Crusaders 70-59 as a 29-point favorite, in what would have been an upset for the ages. It also wouldn’t have been the first time a small school upset a big-name program. So don’t take the big favorites on the money-line and don’t simply lay the points on the more famous conference or school, because tourney time is loaded with big surprises.

 


Source: OnlineCasinoNews